Industry Outlook 2024-2026: Construction Materials

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Demand for construction materials tends to slump through 2024 due to delays in the approval and disbursement of the fiscal budget, which has then held up progress on both megaprojects and general work on public utilities and infrastructure around the country. At the same time, work on private sector residential and commercial developments has been impacted by only weak growth in purchasing power, the run-up in the cost of living, and the recent high interest rates. The total market for construction materials is thus expected to contract by between -2.0% and -3.0% across the year. However, an uptick in spending on public sector construction and a brighter outlook for the economy will then boost the pace of work on both new private sector projects and repairs and renovations, and this should feed through into growth of 4.5-5.0% in 2025 and then of 5.0-5.5% in 2026.

Given this, manufacturers and distributors of construction materials will have to endure a poor outlook for 2024, but as demand is expected to record growth in 2025 and 2026, incomes will grow again. Going forward, major manufacturers will compete to invest in the advanced production technologies needed to cut their greenhouse gas emissions and meet the ESG goals. Distributors will increasingly adapt to the changing needs of digital consumers by leaning more heavily on online distribution channels. Nevertheless, manufacturers and distributors will likely face higher energy and transport costs, and increased pressure on sales due to low-cost imports that will come especially from China and Vietnam.
 

Krungsri Research view​

Continuing weakness in consumer spending power and delays to work on government infrastructure projects will drag on the industry through 2024, but over 2025 and 2026, the outlook for the construction will improve thanks to: (i) an expansion in public sector construction in both Thailand and neighboring countries, especially for work on megaprojects; (ii) an acceleration in work on real estate developments, particularly in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region and in provincial centers; and (iii) a stronger outlook for the economy that will lift incomes and boost demand for the repair and renovation of residential properties.

Producers of construction materials:  

• Cement: Income growth will be depressed through 2024 but an expected increase in spending on construction in 2025 and 2026 will lift incomes, while some manufacturers will also look to move beyond their traditional export targets of the CLM countries by breaking into new markets in Australia and New Zealand

• Construction steel (bar & section): Receipts will fall in 2024, and although these will recover in 2025, growth will remain limited due to pressure from low-cost imports from China and Vietnam.

• Ceramic tile and sanitary ware: As with other segments, income will soften in 2024, but a rebound in real estate markets, especially for residential properties, should then drive recovery in sales. Nevertheless, the large backlog of unsold housing stock, the tightening of credit conditions by lenders (in particular for low- and middle-income borrowers) and competition with cheap Chinese imports will mean that growth will remain anemic.  

Traders of construction materials:

• Modern traders: Income will grow gradually, helped by: (i) improving spending on construction and overall economic outlook; (ii) an expansion in the reach of branch networks and an increasing reliance on using online platforms to distribute goods; (iii) growth in the number of house brand products that are on sale; and (iv) consumers’ increasing preference for shops that carry a wide and comprehensive range of choices and that offer after-sales services such as home repairs, renovations and extensions.

• Traditional traders: For traditional wholesalers, although income will expand due to an increase in construction-related activity across the country, players will face obstacles in the form of rising competition from modern trade outlets and manufacturers selling directly to their customers. For traditional retailers, income will remain flat, although sales from these are generally of home decorations or goods used in home repairs and extensions, and these product categories may see some growth.

Overview

Construction supplies are a crucially important upstream component of the construction and real estate sectors, and because some 60% of all construction costs are for materials (Input-Output Table, 2015), the outlook for the construction supplies industry tends to move with these in a coordinated fashion (Figure 1). The most important product groups can be split into building materials (e.g., cement and construction steel), which account for 40% of the market for all construction materials, and home decorations (e.g., ceramic tile and sanitary ware), which represent another 10% of the market (Figure 2). With the exception of sanitary wares, sales of the main product categories are mostly into the domestic market (Figure 3).

Industry structure

• Producers: According to 2023 data, there were some 801 mid- and large-sized operators^1/ registered in Thailand that were active in the construction materials industry. These enjoy advantages relative too smaller players in virtue of their stronger financial base, their better management of production processes, and their favorable bargaining position relative to suppliers with regard to, for example, price and deliveries of inputs. This then allows these players to mass produce goods more efficiently, which in turn generates economies of scale. In contrast, smaller operators, of which there were 2,153 players in the country, tend to be on a weaker financial footing and this then forces these to produce goods in smaller production runs, adding to marginal manufacturing costs. The structure of the manufacturing side of the industry is summarized in Table 1 below.

• Traders: As of 2023, Thailand was home to 7,303 distributors of construction materials1/, split between 280 large players, 1,172 mid-sized operators, and 5,851 small companies. These can be further categorized according to the characteristics of each business.  

  • Modern Traders are notable for their use of comprehensive management systems across their businesses, from sales floor to back-office services. These operations stock a wide range of construction materials and related goods under a single roof, and these generally cover the complete spread of consumer and trade needs, from basic construction materials through to home repairs, decorations and furniture. Players are generally medium- or large-scale operations, and these have advantages in terms of their capital base and their lower operating costs. Many of these are now in the process of expanding their customer bases in the provinces by extending their upcountry branch networks. One favored strategy for increasing contact points with customers is by offering after-sales services, such as those for home repair and the installation of appliances in and outside the home. Within Thailand, five large players dominate the market and as of 2023, these had a combined 31% share of all income going to retailers of construction materials. These are: The HomePro group (HomePro shops themselves are more oriented towards retail and home decorations, while MegaHome is focused on the wholesale and trade market), Thai Watsadu, Siam Global House, Dohome, and the Boonthavorn Group.

  • Traditional traders are operators in the construction sector using more old-fashioned management systems. Their operations emphasize the distribution of basic building materials, such as cement, sand and hardware (e.g., locks, nails, etc.) together with materials used in home repairs and decoration, and this is targeted at meeting consumer demand within the local area. However, in the face of rising competition from modern trade outlets, some players are also now beginning to raise their competitiveness by modernizing their operations and offering a more comprehensive set of services. This extends to giving their customers a wider range of choices that includes not just building materials but also home decorations, renovating their premises, using alternative distribution channels (especially by increasing their online presence), putting in place modern stock control systems, and offering organized delivery services. Nevertheless, traditional players remain at a disadvantage relative to modern trade outlets with regard to their finances, marketing, and the strength of their brand.

Situation

Producer

In 2023, depressed conditions in the construction sector undercut production and distribution in almost all the main product categories. This was principally the result of the only slow progress that was made on government infrastructure projects, which was itself a consequence of delays to the establishment of the new government and the start of budget disbursements. In addition, the private sector real estate market saw only relatively low levels of growth, and so overall spending on construction expanded by just 0.4% in the year, split between a -2.2% contraction in public sector investment and growth of 3.9% in private sector spending. Alongside this, exports also slipped4/ on the weaker economic outlook in core export markets, which then left importers with significant inventories of construction materials.

• Cement

  • ​Production (portland and mixed cement) dropped -2.4% to 33.8 million tonnes, thus extending 2022’s -4.3% decline. Domestic sales also slipped, and having fallen -4.1% in 2022, this declined by another -2.5% to 31.1 million tonnes (Figure 4). Declines were driven by: (i) depressed demand, which was undercut by the drop-off in public sector construction work; and (ii) the run-up in energy prices, which then added to manufacturing and transportation costs.

  • Exports (not including clinker) slumped -21.8% by volume and -13.3% by value to totals of 1.7 million tonnes and THB 4.1 billion. Sales to Myanmar (mostly of Portland cement and comprising 49% of all Thai cement exports) dropped -8.9% as a result of the country’s ongoing political troubles and the impacts of this on both government and private sector construction projects (Figure 5). Exports to Cambodia (17% of the total) also crashed -43.1% on continuing weakness in the real estate sector. Export to Lao PDR (22% of all cement exports) jumped 66.1% on strong investment in SEZs across the country despite continuing risk factors on economy that include a fall in the value of the kip to a 20-year low, a public debt crisis, and rampant inflation.

  • In recent years, cement producers have begun to move the industry onto a more sustainable footing by investing in the development of new technology, including the production of hydraulic cement. Because production of the latter uses eco-friendly materials in place of clinker^5/, this helps to cut CO₂ emissions, and since hydraulic cement can be used instead of clinker-intensive portland cement, its widespread uptake has the potential to help make significant inroads into reducing construction-related carbon emissions (Figure 6). Over the past few years, Thai manufacturers have thus been stepping up production of this for distribution to both domestic and export markets (Figure 7). Players have also been experimenting with the use of biomass-derived energy in place of the coal that the industry has traditionally relied on, for example in trials using Napier grass that have been carried out in the Saraburi Sandbox^6/.

• Construction steel (bar and section)

  • Output of construction steel climbed 6.6% to 3.9 million tonnes in 2023, while having contracted -4.3% to 3.6 million tonnes a year earlier, the volume of domestic sales jumped 11.9% to reach 4.1 million tonnes (Figure 8). Sales were boosted by the strength of private sector demand, which itself benefited from ongoing contracts for work on government-backed projects as well as developments undertaken by SME contractors, many of which were unable to complete projects due in the previous year as a result of cashflow problems, labor shortages and/or the rising cost of construction materials.

  • Exports of steel bar edged up 2.7% to 0.26 million tonnes on the strength of Thailand’s major overseas markets, including Myanmar (+101.8%), India (+35.0%) and Lao PDR (+8.8%), and in particular the increase in spending by governments on the construction of utilities and infrastructure. However, exports of steel section moved in the opposite direction, contracting -26.2% to 0.29 million tonnes (Figure 9). Declines were thus seen in sales into the major markets of Malaysia (-12.1%), Singapore (-36.7%) and the Philippines (-47.6%) as Thai products increasingly competed for space with Chinese imports; in 2023, imports of Chinese steel section to Malaysia and Singapore jumped by respectively 21.5% and 12.4% by value as Chinese producers responded to worsening trade tensions with the US by dumping low-cost steel on Southeast Asian markets. In the year, exports of Japanese steel to the Philippines also rose 1.8%. At the same time, imports to Thailand were up 6.7% for steel bar and 44.1% for steel section, with these largely coming from China, Japan and South Korea (Figure 10).

  • Following a couple years of increases, prices for construction steel set on global markets softened through 2023. The average price of rebar thus dropped -11.8% to THB 22,964/tonne, while for steel channel, this fell -18.0% to THB 27,783/tonne (Figure 11). Markets were affected by the depressed state of the Chinese real estate sector, which because it is the largest single consumer of steel in the country then rippled through to the steel industry, and with domestic Chinese production remaining high, players were forced to divert their output to international markets. This then increased supply and dragged on prices (Figure 12 and Figure 13).

• Ceramic tile and sanitary ware

  • Output of floor and wall ceramic tile fell back -6.7% to 121.3 million sq.m., while at 5.7 million pieces, production of sanitary ware contracted -12.5%. The quantity of goods distributed to the domestic market also slipped. For tile, this was at the slightly slower rate of -4.8% (to 149.6 million sq.m.), which thus extended the -0.8% fall recorded in 2022, while the market absorbed 3.1 million sanitary ware items (down -1.0%). Declines were driven by the high level of household debt, which then dragged on the construction of new homes and the repair and renovation of existing units (Figure 14 and Figure 15). Nationwide, the number of newly constructed and registered homes thus fell -3.3% in 2023, reversing 2022’s 5.1% growth. In the particular case of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Chiang Mai, Chonburi, Nakhon Ratchasima and Khon Kaen (these together represent 39% of new national housing stock), declines ran to -3.9%. 158,870 new units were thus added to supply in these areas, down from 2022’s growth of 165,363 units. Alongside this, higher energy prices added to production and transportation costs.

  • Slow growth in overseas housing markets and weak consumer spending meant that exports performed badly in the year, slumping -37.2% for ceramic tile to 24.5 million sq.m. and -17.9% for sanitary ware (down to 72,400 tonnes) (Figure 14 and Figure 15). In the case of tile, sales into the main export market of Lao PDR (21% of all exports of ceramic floor and wall tile) crashed -42.9% as importers switched to sourcing goods from Vietnam and India, while for sanitary ware, sales to the US (29% of exports) and Cambodia (9% of exports) dropped by respectively -14.8% and -27.5%. Imports of tile edged up 0.3% to 64.1 million sq.m., though imports from China (with a 56% market share, Thailand’s major supplier) contracted -8.9% on high levels of stockholding; as of the end of 2023, combined inventories stood at 41.5 million sq.m., up from 36.6 million sq.m. a year earlier. However, imports of sanitary ware jumped to 52,600 tonnes, up 14.0% on a 15.6% rise in the quantity of goods coming from China (the country supplies 96% of imports of sanitary ware to Thailand and so is almost its only overseas supplier) (Figure 14 and Figure 15).

• Over 2024 to 2026, several factors will help to keep construction material prices flat or push these up only slightly (Figure 32). (i) Having remained depressed in 2023-2024, greater public-sector spending on construction work will help to lift demand through 2025 and 2026. In addition, the post-COVID rebound in the business environment is supporting an increase in spending on infrastructure worldwide, and this is buoying demand for construction steel, even as major Chinese manufacturers are trimming output in the face of the as-yet unresolved crisis in the Chinese real estate sector. (ii) Companies will need to increase spending on the technologies and innovations needed to reduce the environmental impacts of their manufacturing processes. (iii) Geopolitical tensions will likely remain prolonged, and this will keep energy prices elevated, with knock-on effects for transportation costs. Nevertheless, overall price rises will be limited by only weak growth in domestic purchasing power, though this is particularly a problem for provincial markets, where the impacts of high household debt and tighter credit conditions are more pronounced. In addition, the cost of some inputs may fall. This should include prices for scrap and iron ore, which in the latter case the World Bank sees declining by -8.8% in 2024 and then by another -4.5% in 2025 (World Bank, April 2024).