Monthly Regional Update (January 2021)

Regional Economic and Policy Developments in January

ASEAN: Resurgence of COVID-19 and uneven recovery; continue to see stronger growth than other regions in 2021

 

Cambodia extracts first crude; this will promote development of the domestic oil supply chain

Lao PDR opens Phase 1 of the China-Laos Expressway, but it will take time to complete entire expressway

• On 20 December 2020, Laos opened the Vientiane-Vang Vieng Expressway, linking Vientiane – the country’s capital – and Vang Vieng – one of its most famous tourist destination. The project would reduce land travel time from 3.5 hours to about 1 hour. This is part of the China-Laos Expressway that will start from Vientiane and end at the Laos-China border town of Boten, a 440 km journey that would take about 5 hours. The expressway will operate under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) contract with a 50-year concession.
• We estimate this would help Laos to transition from a land-locked to land-linked country. The expressway would not only expand its road network but also shorten travel time. It will further improve efficiency and competitiveness in the country’s transportation infrastructure. Specifically, it would promote its bilateral trade with China – its second largest export market – through the northern region. Target items include agriculture products, wood & wooden products, and other resources. However, it would be at least 3 years before Laos can enjoy the full benefits, because other sections of the  expressway have yet to be constructed. 

Myanmar plans to develop new industrial parks around Yangon; this would attract more FDI from 2021

Vietnam’s GDP grew 2.9% in 2020, still positive but a new low; 2021 growth could reach official target of 6.0%

Indonesia’s inflation remains benign, opening the door to rate cuts amid surging COVID-19 cases

Philippines’ inflation is close to upper bound of BSP’s target, limiting room for more monetary easing