Industry Horizon (October 2023)

Rice: Lower outputs and fears over food security will push export prices for Thai rice to a 15-year high

Sugar and molasses: Outputs will be undercut by drought resulting in a drop in exports, while domestic consumption will continue to expand.

Chilled, Frozen and Processed Chicken Industry: Outputs and domestic sales will continue to grow  with recovery of business activities and tourism rebound, although exports will be somewhat impacted by the easing of bird flu outbreaks in some overseas markets will weaken growth in exports.

Beverage Industry: Production will be boosted by restocking to serve rising demand from tourism and restaurant businesses, which is then encouraging businesses to restock. In addition, cross-border trade will increase following the reopening of some border crossings.

Automobile: Output will strengthen as problems with chip shortages ease. Domestic sales and exports are expected to grow on gradual recovery of purchasing power.

EVs: The number of EVs registered in Thailand will continue to surge on government supports and production increase in line with investment promotion conditions.

Integrated circuits (ICs): Production and exports will improve in line with global sales  recovery and inflows of FDI.

Refinery: Oil refiners will benefit from growth in the economy, especially from the sharp rebound in the tourism industry, while the cost of crude remains elevated.

Plastics: Sales will rise on a brighter outlook for downstream industries at home and abroad.

Power Generation: Electricity consumption will move in step with growth in the domestic economy, while government policy will encourage the private sector to expand capacity and increase investment in new plants.

Housing (BMR): The housing market will improve steadily on stronger demand from both domestic buyers with real demand and foreign investors.

Office Building (BMR): Expansion in the supply of office space for rent will outpace growth in demand, so the occupancy rate will come under pressure.

Construction Contractors: Growth in spending on overall construction slowed in 2023, but the outlook will improve over 2024-2026 as public sector spending ramps up.

Hotel: 28.5mn foreign arrivals are forecast for 2023, with arrivals potentially reaching 45mn by 2026. Hotel occupancy rates should also be above 70% in 2024.

Private Hospital: Businesses will improve due to the aging population and the increasing number of overseas patients, while players will diversify their customer base to expand their incomes.

Modern Trade: The business outlook will benefit from improving consumer spending power, which will strengthen with economic growth, and expansion in branch coverage.

Air passenger services: Strengthening demand for travel and tourism services is helping operators’ income return to its 2019 pre-COVID level.

Warehousing: With demand expected to rise, the supply of warehousing space will expand.

Digital services and software: Revenues are rising with the development of media platforms offering new types of services driven by big data and AI.

EU CBAM, entering its transitional phase on October 1, 2023, has pushed Thai exporters, particularly in the iron and steel and aluminum sectors to invest in carbon footprint measurement and reporting.

Carbon Credit: The market growth is expected to follow an upward trajectory on heightened awareness of environmental issues and transitions towards sustainability